Category Archives: Pandemic
How the Zombie Apocalypse Can Explain the Spread of Diseases
When the zombie apocalypse is upon us and the undead begin their global domination, we will all be left to fight for our lives or run for the hills. But did you know the scenario of a zombie apocalypse can help to explain just how diseases can spread in society?
In modeling a fictional zombie apocalypse, researchers are able to get a more in depth real world look at disease outbreaks worldwide. The techniques used to study a zombie apocalypse prove to be useful when researching real life diseases. Researchers at Cornell University have explained that a worldwide outbreak of a zombie apocalypse are similar to what a large scale outbreak of a virus like Ebola may look like. In the zombie apocalypse, there are four different stages to the virus.
First stage is the human stage, second is the infected, third is the zombie, and last is a dead zombie stage. These stages interact and combine with each other in a similar way to chemical reactions in the body.
In Depth Look into the Zombie Virus
If there was a zombie apocalypse, we usually assume that all areas are affected at the same time, and months after the initial outbreak occurs, there are pockets of survivors here and there. But realistically this isn’t the way that a disease outbreak will actually go down.
Don’t be too shocked that the zombie apocalypse we know of from our favorite movies and television shows isn’t entirely true. Researchers are able to provide you with a more inside look as to how an actual virus outbreak such as the zombie apocalypse would occur. They predict that dense populated cities will be the first to fall to the virus, and typically they’d likely fall quickly due to overcrowding and the spread of disease.
It would take time however for the zombies to penetrate through to more remote rural regions like that of the Rocky Mountains. The best place you would want to be during an outbreak is a place as far away as possible from people. This way you will be more unlikely to be near any places with an outbreak. Of course this model includes the assumption that people wouldn’t be on the move, so if in fact more people flocked to the mountains, well it wouldn’t be a safe option anymore.
Take for example this image from Cornell University. This image shows a heat map, which depicts a 28 day stretch of the zombie outbreak. The lighter areas are those in which will be hit the hardest and fastest when a zombie outbreak does occur. Again this is all speculation from the research team at Cornell. More remote locations will have a huge advantage with less people, on the other hand supplies and resources will be limited.How Disease Spreads
How Disease Spreads
So do you remember that time a dog on your street came down with rabies, then later in the day, every other dog on the block ended up having rabies too? No? That’s because biting is a terrible way of spreading disease. So when looking at a zombie virus, to a traditional virus, biting may not spread the disease as fast as our movies have taught us.
Successful diseases have a clever way of spreading to their victims. The flu has killed over 10 million people because it hits through the air, the plague was spread by fleas, and sexually transmitted diseases work through sharing intimate contact with the infected. I don’t think anyone really will be in the mood to have sex with a zombie, so it looks like we’re safe there.
Traditional diseases have been able to mutate in order to infect more unsuspecting victims in a quick period of time. If biting is the method of infection with a zombie virus, we may just have time to run off to the middle of nowhere before the infection gets to us. And just like traditional diseases and viruses, the zombie virus shows a transition. If the overall total of the disease is below a certain level or point, well it’s more than likely that humans will come out on top, otherwise, look out.
If Hollywood has taught us anything, it’s that larger cities always fall first, even with a large amount of supplies. Perhaps the best route would be to plan ahead by gathering supplies and stocking up, while locating to a more remote location. And they always said living out in the middle of nowhere had its disadvantages. Seems to me that this is quite the opposite when we are dealing with an army of undead moving on us, wanting to devour our brains for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
New SARS Coronavirus -The Next Plague?
There’s a new nasty bug making its way across the planet the new SARS-linked coronavirus and it may be spread person to person. This is the way they believe SARS first began, as well as a number of other, very fatal, viruses. It starts with a simple virus, it begins spreading from one being to the next. Eventually, it will hit someone that has an unusual mutation and the virus itself mutates. It passes on to the next person in this mutated form and becomes, over time, more deadly and infectious than before.
This new virus was first identified in the Middle East and all 10 previous infections were people who had lived in, or traveled to this region. But now, the latest UK patient had not traveled to this region, but instead, came in contact with someone who had. This new coronavirus is related to the common cold, which we all know is very transmittable. Of the 11 reported coronavirus cases, 5 of the people have died. A 45% death rate should make people stand up and take notice. If this virus gets out ‘into the wild’ we could have another major pandemic.
Yosemite hantavirus warnings extend to Britain
The Health Protection Agency said in a statement Monday that officials were “providing health advice and information … about the ongoing situation in the U.S.” to about 100 people believed to have traveled to the national park between June 10 and Aug. 24.
The organization said it was also working with the U.S. and European centers for disease control and prevention in responding to the outbreak.
Six cases of the rare, rodent-borne disease have been linked to the park, two of which were fatal. Park officials have traced five of the cases to the “signature tent cabins” in Curry Village, one of the Yosemite’s most popular campgrounds, and said a design flaw allowed mice to get inside the walls of the insulated cabins.
Spread through urine, droppings or saliva of infected rodents, hantavirus takes between one and six weeks before causing symptoms in humans, officials said. The disease is generally transmitted when people come in contact with an enclosed area that has been infested by mice.
The disease is rare — 587 cases were diagnosed nationwide from 1993 and 2011, of which about one-third were fatal, according to the CDC.
But the cases at Yosemite are perhaps even more rare. Both park officials and public health authorities said they had not heard of more than one case of the disease in the same location within a year.
News of the outbreak has rattled recent visitors. Rangers have fielded thousands of calls from concerned travelers, and a spokeswoman with the concessionaire that handles park lodging said there was a 20% cancellation rate on a usually sold-out Labor Day weekend.
AND MAN SHALL FALL! West Nile cases rising; 66 dead
(CNN) — Sixty-six people have died from West Nile virus infections this year, and the number of human cases has grown to 1,590, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.
That’s the highest case count through the last week of August since the virus was first detected in the United States in 1999.
Nearly half of all the infections have occurred in Texas, where officials said later Wednesday that 894 cases have been reported along with 34 deaths.
“Those numbers are going to go up,” said Dr. David Lakey, commissioner for the Texas Department of State Health Services.
Lakey said it looks like 2012 will be the worst year so far when it comes to West Nile virus cases. In 2003, Texas reported 40 deaths because of the virus, and health officials believe they will surpass that number this year.
All lower 48 states are now reporting West Nile activity, and 43 states have reported at least one person infected with the virus.
More than 70% of all West Nile virus cases in the United States are found in six states: Texas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Michigan, according to the CDC.
While the CDC said these are the highest number of cases reported by the last week in August since the disease was first recorded in 1999, it’s not the highest number the country has seen. In 2003, the United States had 9,862 reported cases of West Nile virus, and in 2002 there were more than 4,100 cases and 284 fatalities.
In more than half the current nationwide cases, West Nile has led to neuroinvasive disease — serious illnesses like meningitis, encephalitis or virus-associated paralysis. About 10% of these cases can be fatal, according to the CDC, and a high proportion of those who survive can be left with longstanding neurological problems.
Older people are more vulnerable to severe illness from West Nile. So far, the median age among those with neuroinvasive disease this year is 58. In Texas, nearly two-thirds of all cases are in people older than 50.
Health officials do not yet know why there are more cases this year than in recent years.
Based on previous experiences with floods and hurricanes, health officials do not believe Hurricane Isaac will have a major impact on this year’s outbreak.
Mosquitoes that spread the virus breed in small nutrient-rich pools of water, such as the water found in old tires, so a large rainfall event or flooding usually washes out those small pools and eliminates breeding sites, said Dr. Lyle Petersen, who heads the CDC’s Division of Vector-Borne Infections.
But after the water recedes, there’s always the possibility that new small pools of water will form.
Petersen urged the public to take proper precautions to prevent getting sick regardless of whether they live in a state with high or low case counts.
To reduce your risk of exposure to mosquitoes and to prevent their breeding sites:
— Drain all standing water from flower pots, old tires, clogged rain gutters, etc., where mosquitoes breed.
— Use an insect repellant that contains DEET, picaridin or oil of lemon eucalyptus.
— Also wear long sleeves and long pants to protect your skin when you’re outside.
— Stay indoors at dusk and dawn because that’s when mosquitoes are most active.
PANDEMIC OUTBREak – West Nile virus prompts public health emergency in Dallas County, Texas
A West Nile virus epidemic has prompted a public health emergency in Dallas County, Texas, where the disease has killed nine people, a judge declared Friday.
The virus there infected 175 people, said Patricia Huston of Dallas County Health and Human Services.
Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins declared the emergency in his capacity as director of the county’s Homeland Security and Emergency Management and instructed the department to file a local disaster declaration with the state.
“This declaration will expand our avenues for assistance in our ongoing battle with West Nile virus,” Jenkins said in a statement.
Insecticide spraying by planes will be offered to certain communities hit hard by the virus as long as those local governments request it, Jenkins told reporters.
The aerial spraying would occur from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m., when children are inside, Jenkins said.
“The insecticide is safe,” Jenkins said. “The planes are quite sophisticated, and they get the spray to where it needs to go.”
The judge organized an invitation-only work session Friday with county, state and federal officials to discuss a response to the epidemic.
The United States is experiencing its biggest spike in West Nile virus since 2004, with 241 cases of the disease reported nationwide this year so far, including four deaths, health officials said last weekend, before the latest totals.
Of the 42 states that have reported infections in people, birds or mosquitoes, 80% of them have been in Texas, Mississippi and Oklahoma, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement. The CDC listed a breakdown of infections by state.
“It is not clear why we are seeing more activity than in recent years,” said Marc Fischer, a CDC medical epidemiologist. “Regardless of the reasons for the increase, people should be aware of the West Nile virus activity in their area and take action to protect themselves and their family.”
The virus is transmitted through infected mosquitoes.
In the United States, most infections occur between June and September, and peak in August, according to the CDC.
Symptoms include fever, headache, body aches, joint pains, vomiting, diarrhea or rash.
“Less than 1% develop a serious neurologic illness such as encephalitis or meningitis (inflammation of the brain or surrounding tissues),” the CDC said.
Those at greater risk are people older than 50 and those with conditions such as cancer, diabetes and kidney disease, or with organ transplants.
There are no medications to treat West Nile virus or vaccines to prevent infection. People with milder illnesses typically recover on their own, but those more seriously affected may need hospital care.
Health experts say prevention measures include avoiding mosquito bites, using insect repellant and getting rid of insect breeding sites.