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A viral pandemic has the potential to cripple the nation’s workforce and infrastructure
A viral pandemic has the potential to cripple the nation’s workforce and infrastructure. Where does government provision end and your contingency planning begin? By Andrea Kirkby
With 5.3 million extra tourists arriving for the Olympics, the risk of avian flu and other pandemics arriving in the UK has greatly increased.
But back in December 2005, the Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology
said the country was not ready to defend itself against an avian flu pandemic. Have things changed since?
According to Dr Doug Quarry, medical director of International SOS Pandemic Planning Services, the spread of the H5N1 virus is not the only issue – new strains have developed, too. Has preparedness kept up to date with the risk, or are we becoming dangerously complacent?
Globally, government preparedness varies widely. But overall, in terms of healthcare, preparedness has certainly improved. Major vaccine manufacturers ramped up their capabilities in 2006 and the UK government stockpiled 16,000 doses of Pandemix. In fact, now the political issue is whether the UK government has bought too much vaccine and paid too high a price.
The government also put a detailed pandemic strategy in place, which was overhauled in 2011. However, while this covers NHS and social services preparedness in detail, it’s pretty vague on how businesses will cope. Generally, it foresees ‘business as usual’; borders won’t be closed, nor will schools, and while events organisers ‘may prefer’ to cancel major events, there will be no government compulsion.
Unfortunately, that throws the entire burden for preparedness on to individual businesses. And the Association of British Insurers says business interruption policies are unlikely to cover closures as a result of an influenza epidemic. In terms of medical preparedness, a number of businesses are now stockpiling antivirals for key staff and their families. But that’s only the tip of a very large iceberg. Bird flu or swine flu here and in the rest of the world could have a major impact on businesses in many different areas of operations.
Logistics is an obvious area where business continuity plans will be vital. Even if the UK itself isn’t affected, companies that import supplies or outsource parts of their business process are at risk from outbreaks in other countries. British business is now highly dependent on the Far East for its components and sub-assemblies. Call centres in other countries could also be badly affected.
Continuity plans need to enable a speedy response. Australia declared it would close its borders within two hours in the event of a bird-flu pandemic – that would give businesses little time to prepare.
Know your own needs
Many companies are handicapped by lack of detailed knowledge of their own supply chains. For instance, multiple sourcing won’t help if suppliers all depend on a single crop or base component manufacturer. Service Level Agreements should help guarantee supply, but strategic stockpiling may be necessary.
Within the UK, cash handling and postal services are likely to prove bottlenecks – cash handling was one of the concerns arising from the FSA’s market-wide exercise in 2006. Neither banks nor the Post Office are on the government’s list of Category 2 responders, although arguably they are as vital to the smooth running of the nation as the railways or ports. Smaller bank branches could have to close if staff are sick, leaving some areas without banking facilities and ATM top-ups depend on transport, which could be knocked out early in a pandemic.
Businesses will also rely on telecoms and so network resilience is a major issue. While telecoms companies (both fixed and mobile) are listed as Category 2 responders, facilities will be stretched, particularly where companies have told staff to work from home.
Some companies are now looking at the possibility of using distributed or ‘virtual’ call centres, possible using such services as OPEX hosting. Routing calls to employees’ homes rather than setting up large emergency centres may well be the best way to cope with a pandemic (although ironically, the government plans to set up a centralised public information call centre – just the kind of facility businesses are likely to be avoiding.)
Will the internet stand up to increased usage? There are real concerns about the ability of service providers to cope with the increased traffic. A Booz Allen report in April 2006 speculated that internet provision might only last two to four days into a pandemic. Even then, Jeroen Meijer, an expert in risk at Control Risks, says he believes that working from home requires a completely different way of managing staff. “Businesses will have to change and change fast, or their plans won’t stick.”
While most business continuity plans are focused on assets – offices and IT – pandemic preparedness has to focus on human resources. Meijer says: “It’s like a neutron bomb – your hardware is still there, but you are losing your staff.”
Worst-case scenarios
Government advice appears to understate the risks to business. The 2011 UK Influenza Preparedness Strategy sees the worst-case scenario as flu affecting 50 per cent of the population, with 15 to 20 per cent of staff absent on any single day, and mortality rates of 2 to 5 per cent.
However, the 2006 FSA market-wide exercise modelled staff absence as high as a 60 per cent peak in some business units. Businesses with a high proportion of female, particularly part-time, staff also need to assess the likelihood of staff who are not ill having to look after children if schools close.
Meijer points out that most business systems aren’t yet able to offer staff absence data in a form that’s useful in stress situations. “Absenteeism monitoring is crucial and not many companies have it on a day-to-day basis, so you could say with one push on the button, who is available where.” This is one area where, compared to the sophisticated systems with which many supply chains are run, human resources scores relatively low.
A pandemic is difficult to protect against since it is not a singular event; pandemics typically come in waves lasting six to 15 months. Flexibility has to be built in; equally, companies need trusted sources of information to monitor the pandemic internationally and that feedback will provide the triggers to action. Meijer warns against believing in a “one-button solution” to a dynamic threat. “Your decision-making process needs to incorporate flexibility and continuous monitoring.”
Fortunately, one area that has advanced a good deal recently has been the availability of good information. National media will generally not report in detail on the situation in other countries – affecting the supply chain – while some governments may downplay the situation in order to avoid panic. There are no government plans for a business-orientated information service, so all public information will be consumer focused and therefore of limited utility to the business manager.
Fortunately, a wide range of information products is now available. For instance, International SOS reports include the ascertaining of medical suppliers and reports monitoring government response.
Keep calm and carry on?
One question divides experts: how bad can a pandemic get? At worst, some believe, most of the transport infrastructure might be shut down, telecoms would be badly impacted by lack of maintenance and high usage, and there could be public order problems if the supply of food and other basic items is interrupted. In the face of a social breakdown of that order, there might seem to be no point planning.
However, Jeroen Meijer says that even in this case, those businesses that have planned well will gain an eventual competitive advantage from having done so. “The objective is to stay in business as long as possible and if you have to shut down completely, do it in a controlled manner that provides the best security to your staff and assets, and enables you to restart operations quickly and efficiently.”
It’s difficult to judge business preparedness, since many businesses won’t talk about their preparations. Most companies do now have pandemic plans as part of their business continuity framework, but those plans may not have been revisited for several years. Perhaps they should be.
There’s a huge impact on the work of facilities managers. A plan needs to be put in place for managing the consequences of a pandemic – checking sanitation and air quality, handling high absenteeism and planning for interruption to basic services and to transport. Basic cleaning services should be stepped up – that might mean cleaning lift buttons, door handles, ATM machines and check-in desks as often as hourly. That means increasing the level of service at the same time as managing a staff shortage – not an easy task.
Cross-training staff so that they can step in to replace staff who are absent will be vital – particularly where remote working is not a possibility. In some cases, upgrading systems to allow for remote operation could be a good investment.
Some facilities may need to implement perimeter protection, possibly including thermal scanners (which can detect if someone has a fever) or even DNA testing. New procedures for deliveries may be required to prevent drivers from entering the building – dropping off the deliveries in a secure car park, for instance. Where security is provided by a contractor, common policies and procedures need to be developed with them, including where staff are not admitted, what to do next (send them home? To hospital?) and who to notify within the organisation.
Facilities managers also need to ensure that subcontractors and suppliers have plans to deal with a pandemic. Unlike many disasters, a pandemic will be a sustained event, probably lasting eight to 14 weeks, so planning needs to take that into account. For instance, stocks of critical supplies may need to be built up. Tenant relations and contracts also need to be put under the microscope. If the government or a tenant closes a building, how can you continue to manage it? Are you going to be required – and are you going to be able – to provide emergency relocation for the tenant?
However, while the pandemic threat does have some special characteristics, developing a specific pandemic plan could be a waste of effort. Rather, pandemic plans should be developed within the framework of overall continuity plans.
The most worrying gap is the absence of government involvement in assuring the regular supply of basic goods. Booz Allen Hamilton noted back in 2006 that government needs to assurethe ‘last mile’ – but the 2011 strategy still doesn’t seem to have taken any notice. Is reliance on the private sector, without compulsion or assistance, a responsible government strategy?
SuperVolcanoes – This Is the Way the World Ends? Volcanoes Could Darken World
Super-volcanoes have probably caused more extinctions than asteroids. But until now it has been thought that these giant volcanoes took thousands of years to form — and would remain trapped beneath the earth’s crust for thousands more years — before having much effect on the planet.
But new research indicates these catastrophic eruptions, possibly thousands of times more powerful than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, may happen only a few hundred years after the volcanoes form. In other words, they may have a very “short fuse,” according to researchers at Vanderbilt University.
Such an event could make thermonuclear war or global warming seem trivial, spewing untold tons of ash into the atmosphere to block sunlight. The result would be many years of frigid temperatures, wiping out millions of species. A super-volcano that erupted 250 million years ago is now believed to have created the greatest mass extinction the world has ever seen, wiping out up to 95 percent of all plant and animal species. Some renegade scientists believe it was a volcano, not an asteroid, that killed off the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
But is global suicide lurking right below our feet? Is a super-volcano about to blow its top? Not as far as scientists can tell. Such a volcano results from the accumulation of a giant pool of lava just a few miles below the ground, and there is no known formation anywhere on the planet that is expected to erupt in the immediate future.
Scientists, who could be wrong about that, have thought for decades that once that pool forms, it stays there for thousands of years before erupting. But the new study by geophysicists from Vanderbilt, along with colleagues at the University of Chicago and elsewhere, documents several lines of research showing that the trigger could be pulled quickly, possibly within a few hundred years.
“Our study suggests that when these exceptionally large magma pools form they are ephemeral and cannot exist very long without erupting,” Vanderbilt’s Guilherme Gualda said in releasing the study, published in the journal Public Library of Science ONE.
That research, as well as earlier research that led to a very different conclusion, was based on the formation of crystals in the molten magma that decay at known rates and thus provide a geological clock, dating various events in the history of the volcano.
According to Gualda, previous researchers looked at the decay of zircons, which are common in volcanic rocks, and concluded that the giant magma pools could exist for 100,000 years. But his team looked at the crystallization of quartz, the most abundant mineral in volcanic deposits, and concluded that such a pool would have to erupt in one-tenth of that time, and possibly in only about 500 years.
That makes the threat of super-volcanoes a bit more serious, but there’s no reason to panic.
Gualda’s team studied deposits in the Long Valley Caldera in northeastern California, where a violent eruption blew 150 cubic miles of molten rock into the atmosphere, blanketing much of North America with hot ash and dropping the earth’s surface more than a mile as it sank into the area once occupied by the magma. That was about 760,000 years ago, but all these years later the region still keeps a lot of scientists on the edge of their seats.
The Long Valley geology began misbehaving again in 1978 when a 5.4 earthquake struck six miles southeast of the caldera, suggesting that the volcano might be reasserting itself. In subsequent years that was followed by swarms of small quakes, which are closely associated with pending volcanic eruptions.
A couple of decades ago, trees began dying on nearby Mammoth Mountain from large amounts of carbon dioxide seeping from the magma, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Today, the caldera seems to be quieting down, despite several recent bursts of seismic events, but it is probably the most closely watched volcano on the planet. Scientists with the USGS are keeping a close eye on it, monitoring every little belch, and they insist there is no reason for the folks who live in California to be concerned. At least not yet.
Meanwhile, scientists at Oregon State University have been focusing their attention on Yellowstone National Park, where an eruption a couple of million years ago is believed to have been 2,000 times larger than Mount St. Helens. That region also shows constant signs of seismic unrest, and there have been eruptions there several times in the past, according to the Oregon researchers.
Incidentally, researchers at Washington State University in Pullman, who have also been studying Yellowstone, concluded earlier this year that the big eruption 2 million years ago wasn’t one blast, but two, separated by about 6,000 years.
But just because it was split into two parts doesn’t mean it was benign. The Washington researchers believe the first blast was the biggest, and it darkened the sky with ash from California to the Mississippi River.
So super-volcanoes cannot be ignored, and now it seems they can pull the trigger much more quickly than anyone had thought.
Zombie apocalypse prophesied in ancient scriptures
In recent headlines, there have been outbreaks of bizarre, brutal, cannibalistic events that have unfolded over the past few weeks, with an almost daily occurrence of articles written about cannibalism and the “Zombie Apocalypse.” There have been disturbing tales of humans devouring fellow humans, from the bath salts incident, involving a nakedcannibal, to the ‘Cannibal Killer,’ a porn star who allegedly murdered, dismembered and tasted the flesh of his victim. Just Saturday, many newspapers even reported the stomach contents of the Miami cannibal/zombie. Stores are beginning to carry zombie bullets, and college dorms are beginning to hold zombie drills, so students will be prepared for the hoards of zombies that could possibly attack mankind. Unfortunately, all of these stories seem perfectly suited to for horror films, but are real.
Incredibly, though the prospect of zombies and a zombie apocalypse seem purely fiction in the minds of most, the ancient scriptures reveal past, and possibly, future events that significantly resemble zombies or the walking undead. Take for example the death and resurrection narrative of Jesus of Nazareth, though no one would suggest Jesus was a zombie, a portion of the narrative surrounding his death, reveals an incident that most people overlook.
Matt. 27:50-53: And Jesus cried out again with a loud voice, and yielded up His spirit. And behold, the veil of the temple was torn in two from top to bottom; and the earth shook and the rocks were split. The tombs were opened, and many bodies of the saints who had fallen asleep were raised; and coming out of the tombs after His resurrection they entered the holy city and appeared to many.
One could not even imagine what it would have been like to see all of the past saints walk out of their graves, and appear to those dwelling in Jerusalem. Furthermore, one might ask, what actually happened to the bodies of those who were raised? Are they still among us? Or did they die a second time?
A second past event, found within the ancient scriptures, can be found in Ezekiel 37.
Ezekiel 37:7-10: So I prophesied as I was commanded. And as I was prophesying, there was a noise, a rattling sound, and the bones came together, bone to bone. I looked, and tendons and flesh appeared on them and skin covered them…and breath entered them; they came to life and stood up on their feet—a vast army.
Future Zombie Apocalypse
According to certain Christian eschatology, there are two future events that could resemble a zombie apocalypse. The first event, familiar to most, is the resurrection of the dead, in the “last days.” This event is viewed by most, as a time when all the graves of mankind will open, and everyone who has died will come forth for the “final judgment.” In fact, many believe that the dead will be the first judged at the final judgment, and those who are living will witness the event, previous to their judgment. Thus, those who are alive will first witness the dead arising from their graves.
1 Corinthians 15:51- 52: Behold, I shew you a mystery; We shall not all sleep, but we shall all be changed, in a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trump: for the trumpet shall sound, and the dead shall be raised incorruptible, and we shall be changed.
John 5:28-29: Marvel not at this: for the hour is coming, in the which all that are in the graves shall hear his voice, and shall come forth; they that have done good, unto the resurrection of life; and they that have done evil, unto the resurrection of damnation.
The second eschatological or future event, which could be viewed as a zombie apocalypse, is known by most as the “battle of Armageddon.” It is believed that in the final days, the armies of the devil or Satan, will rise up against God, Israel and God’s army, at a place known as Armageddon. When this occurs, it will appear as if evil has won, throughout the entire earth. At that point, most believe that Jesus will return with all the armies of heaven, to finally defeat the devil and his armies, and cast them into the “lake of fire.”
Revelation 16:12-16 For they are the spirits of devils, working miracles, which go forth unto the kings of the earth and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty… And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon.
Revelation 19:19 And I saw the beast, and the kings of the earth, and their armies, gathered together to make war against him that sat on the horse, and against his army.
Now, there are many scriptures that Christians, which hold this view, use as proof of a future battle. However, one scriptural source, which most have not thoroughly considered, could appear as a massive zombie attack.
Zechariah 14:12-13 And the LORD will send a plague on all the nations that fought against Jerusalem. Their people will become like walking corpses, their flesh rotting away. Their eyes will rot in their sockets, and their tongues will rot in their mouths. On that day they will be terrified, stricken by the LORD with great panic. They will fight their neighbors hand to hand.
Today, most zombie lore revolves around plagues, which cause the dead to rise, and typically battle with or eat the living. This scripture in Zechariah seems to clearly reveal an event, similar to the most recent zombie lore. One might wonder if ancient Christians also feared and imminent zombie attack as well. At the very least, zombie apocalypse fanatics now have a further argument in their arsenal, which points toward a future attack of the undead, found within the ancient scriptures.
Coolest thing since the Zombie Outbreak Started – Gnombie
Another Zombie Outbreak – Maryland man charged with killing, eating man’s brain, heart
A 21-year-old Morgan State University student told investigators that he ate the heart and portions of the brain of a man whose dismembered remains were found in his Joppa home, according to a grisly account from the Harford County Sheriff’s Office.
The arrest of Alexander Kinyua came almost a week after Kujoe Bonsafo Agyei-Kodie, 37, went missing, and followed a search of the home the two men apparently shared in the 500 block of Terrapin Terrace in Joppatowne early Wednesday morning, police said.
Kinyua, an electrical engineering student who until January was involved in the ROTC program at Morgan, was ordered held without bail at a court appearance Thursday afternoon.
Monica Worrell, a spokeswoman for the Harford County Sheriff’s Office, said today that Agyei-Kodie had been reported missing, but information collected by detectives “didn’t pass the smell test.” On Monday, police released a public appeal for help in locating him.
Late Tuesday night, Antony Kinyua, notified police that his son, Kinyua’s brother, had found what they believed were human remains in the basement of the house, according to charging documents. Upon their arrival, Jarrod Kinyua told police he found a human head and two human hands inside metal tins, under a blanket in the laundry room.
When he asked Alexander Kinyua about the remains, Jarrod Kinyua said his brother denied that they were human and said they were animal remains, according to charging documents. After calling his father, Antony Kinyua, downstairs, the pair discovered the remains had been moved and Alexander Kinyua was washing out the metal tins.
With a search and seizure warrant for the location, deputies were able to locate the head and hands on the main floor of the house, according to charging documents. They also interviewed Alexander Kinyua, who allegedly admitted that he had killed Agyei-Kodie by cutting him up with a knife and afterward, ingested his heart and portions of his brain.
Kinyua also directed police to Towne Baptist Church, in the 500 block of Trimble Road, to find the rest of the remains, which were found in a Dumpster on the property, according to charging documents.
The case comes on the heels of shocking incidents in cities like Miami, where a naked man believed to be high on bath salts ate another man’s face, and New Jersey, where a man disemboweled himself and reportedly threw his intestines at police officers. Police there say they aren’t sure whether the man, Wayne Carter, was on drugs or suffering from mental illness.
At his first court appearance, defense attorney Lynne McChrystal requested that reasonable bail to be set in the case, adding that Kinyua has been in Harford County for six years and in Marylandfor nine years. He is self-employed and performs consulting work, she added.
Upon questioning by Judge John L. Dunnigan, Kinyua said that all of his family members resided in Maryland and he was originally from Nairobi, Kenya.
Assistant State’s Attorney Trenna Manners cited those out-of-country ties, as well as the “grisly” nature of the crime, when she asked for Kinyua to be held without bail.
The charges are not Kinyua’s first in recent weeks, and a previous arrest and Kinyua’s online postings point to a troubled man. In January, he was disenrolled from the ROTC program after two-and-a-half-years of participation, said Lt. Col. James Lewis, a professor of military service who oversees the program. Officials said it followed a disciplinary incident.
Then on May 20, Kinyua, who otherwise does not have a criminal record in Maryland, was charged with first-degree assault and reckless endangerment in Baltimore in connection with an incident that allegedly occurred May 19 at the Thurgood Marshallapartments, according to court records.
In that case, according to police, Kinyua “randomly” attacked another Morgan State student in a doorway of the apartment complex with a baseball bat, then fled into a nearby wooded area. The victim, listed as Joshua Ceasar, suffered fractures to his skull, arm, shoulder, as well as blindness to his left eye. The first responding officer saw Ceasar stumbling toward her, with blood coming from his forehead, and the officer noted a large amount of blood in the doorway.
Kinyua was ordered held on $220,000 bond in that case, and university officials said the school was in the process of expelling him.
On May 25, what appeared to be a plea from his parents for help paying Kinyua’s legal fees in the case from was posted on the website Mwakilishi.com, a Kenyan news site. The post, which has since been removed, said Kinyua had been arrested for “being involved in a fight in his dormitory room at Morgan State University.”
The online plea says, “In order to get him the best defense possible, we need to secure an attorney who will take his case and leave no stone unturned.”
It also states a fundraising event was scheduled at the International Christian Community Church on Sunday. He was scheduled to appear at a preliminary hearing in that case June 19.
In the days prior to the arrest, he had posted several strange messages on his Facebook page, in all capital letters. In two of the posts, he uploaded “QR Codes,” bar code images that when scanned with a smart phone lead to a web page. They both led to the following message about the “destruction of the black family”:
“PROJECT CRACK CODE COUNTERING THE DESTRUCTION OF THE HUMAN FAMILY SPREAD THE MESSAGE OF CREATION SUPPORT CRACK TEAM STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SURVIVAL OF THE HUMAN FAMILY.”
In another, he wrote about campus shootings and “death cults”:
“HEAR ME OUT HBCU’ERS: ARE YOU STRONG ENOUGH TO ENDURE RITUAL HBCU MASS HUMAN SACRIFICES AROUND THE COUNTRY AND STILL BE ABLE TO FUNCTION AS HUMAN BEINGS? IT’S BEEN ALL TOO TRAGIC WITH THE DUAL UNIVERSITY SHOOTINGS AT VIRGINIA TECH, AND OTHER PAST UNIVERSITY KILLINGS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW FOR A TWIST: ETHNIC CLEANSING IS THE POLICY, STRATEGY AND TACTICS THAT WILL AFFECT YOU, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE COMING MONTHS. THIS IS THE BRUTAL BASIS, AN EVIL & TERRIFYING METHOD OF THIS DEATH CULTS.”
Jasmine Bloomfield said Kinyua was known around campus – “he was always all around campus involved with things” – but often acted strangely. He was “always in his own little world, preaching everywhere he went and talking about how he was writing a book.” Once, she said, he got up during a screening of a documentary and started yelling about the struggle of black people.
But his page also shows Kinyua in the fall smiling at a campus event for student organizations, showing off a jacket for the National Society of Pershing Rifles, which according to its website is a fraternity for students in Reserve Office Training Corps program.
Late Wednesday, a man who answered a phone at the number listed said Antony and Beatrice Kinyua were “resting,” and that the family did not wish to speak to the media without an attorney present.