Category Archives: SHTF
Mutant bird flu would be airborne
Mutant bird flu would be airborne, scientists say
Here’s what it takes to make a deadly virus transmissible through the air: as few as five genetic mutations, according to a new study.
This research, published in the journal Science, is the second of two controversial studies to finally be released that examines how the H5N1 bird flu virus can be genetically altered and transmitted in mammals. Publication of both studies had been delayed many months due to fears that the research could be misused and become a bio-security threat.
Although these particular engineered forms of H5N1 have not been found in nature, the virus has potential to mutate enough such that it could become airborne.
H5N1 influenza can be deadly to people, but in its natural forms it does not easily transfer between people through respiratory droplets, as far as scientists know. The World Health Organization has recorded 355 humans deaths from it out of 602 cases, although some research has questioned this high mortality rate.
The journals Science and Nature had agreed to postpone the publication of the two studies related to the genetically altered virus.
In January, the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity recommended that this research be published without “methods or details” that terrorists might be able to use for biological weapons. The board also said the data could assist in preparing for a possible future outbreak, however.
Then in February, the World Health Organization convened a meeting, at which the recommendation was to publish the studies – just not yet. In April, the National Institutes of Health chimed in, also recommending publication.
The first study to be published on the topic was in the journal Nature, and was led by the University of Wisconsin-Madison researcher Yoshihiro Kawaoka. It was released in May.
The other research group, which authored the new study in Science, was led by Ron Fouchier at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Both Kawaoka and Fouchier’s groups created a mutated version of H5N1 that made it easier to transmit from mammal to mammal. They used ferrets because these animals are a good approximation for how viruses behave in humans.
Fouchier’s study examines what mutations would be necessary to get the virus airborne. He and colleagues found five mutations consistent in a form of the H5N1 flu virus that could spread among ferrets through the air.
None of the ferrets died after developing the flu, the researchers said.
In a separate analysis, researchers looked at the likelihood that an airborne avian flu virus would evolve on its own from the H5N1 currently found in nature.
This study, also published in Science this week, looked at nearly 4,000 strains of influenza virus and frequently found two of the five mutations that appear to be involved in airborne transmission. These two mutations have been found in viruses from both birds and humans, although not in naturally-occurring H5N1 strains.
Derek Smith of the University of Cambridge, who co-authored that study, said at a press briefing that it’s possible that only three mutations are necessary for the virus to evolve.
Smith’s group also did mathematical modeling to look at whether the other mutations could evolve when the bird flu jumps to a human or other mammal.
“We find that it is possible for such a virus to evolve three mutations within a single host,” Smith said during the press call.
If it takes four for five mutations to become airborne, that would be more difficult – but it’s unclear just how likely it would be, Smith said.
While the Nature study looked at how a bird flu virus could become airborne through mutations and re-assortment with other viruses, the latest research in Science suggests mutations alone could do the trick.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters that the benefits from the Science study, in terms stimulating ideas and pursuing ways to understand the transmissibility, adaptability and pathogenesis of the virus, outweigh the risks that someone will use the data for nefarious purposes.
“Does that mean that there’s no risk? No, of course not. I can’t tell you at all
that there’s no risk. But the benefits in my mind outweigh the risks,” he said.
Making the research available generally will hopefully spark input on this topic from researchers in a wide variety of fields, he said.
It is technologically possible to create vaccine based on the genetic code of a flu virus strain including this one, researchers said. Several companies are already making H5N1 vaccines.
Research is ongoing to accelerate the amount of vaccine doses available by using adjuvants, which are agents that modify the effects of vaccines, Fauci said. There is also work ongoing into using computational sequencing to anticipate every possible influenza strain that could emerge, such that a databank could be established to prepare for the outbreak of any one of them, he said.
“Right now we’re in a much, much better position than we were when we had vaccine available after the peak of the 2009 H1N1 two years ago,” Fauci said.
Apocalypse NOW! Surviving the Doomsday Polar Shift in an Inland Lifeboat
Because the STATIM pods are modular, you can customize them for your particular nightmare scenario.
First things first. Before worrying about food storage or access to clean water during a major disaster, you need to make sure you get through the first wave safely. But never fear: When the next big tsunami hits, a water-ready modular bunker called the STATIM pod aims to float you above the flooding.
Invented by Miguel Serrano, President at Brahman Industries, the STATIM (Storm, Tornado And Tsunami Interconnected Modules) pods are designed to withstand the awesome power of tsunamis, while giving survivors a fighting chance in the aftermath.
Brahman Industries calls the pods “inland lifeboats.” The reason: they’re buoyant and self-righting, so when the floods come, they will bob to the surface. They’re also low-tech, easy to maintain, and easy to construct, which means there’s a possibility for wide deployment. The company’s plan is to install and anchor them in flood-prone areas so when the alarm bells ring, those most at risk can rush to the safety of the pods. Inside, up to 50 people can cling to secure seating arrangements.
It’s the end of the world, but this guy is feeling fine.
The biggest issue with rescue-shelter design is always cost. We already know how to make structures that can withstand natural disasters; it’s just incredibly expensive. The key to keeping costs down is using concrete, a cheap and well-understood building material. “We’re addressing a high-priority need with a low tech approach,” says Serrano. When STATIM reaches scale, Serrano aims to offer the 50-person pod at around $1,800 a head.
The tubular hull is made from a series of pre-cast concrete modules. The modules can be created at local factories, shipped separately, and then aligned and winched together on site to create a watertight seal. “Everyone knows how to do this,” says Serrano. According to the company, the assembly process for the pre-cast parts requires about the same amount of knowledge as installing a drain system.
A STATIM pod waits to be assembled.
The pod continues to serve the people inside long after the first wave of disaster. “After Katrina, they spent three weeks just rescuing people with helicopters,” Serrano says. Because the pods are buoyant and equipped with communications devices, rescuers will be able to easily meet up with the pods to tow them away. A boat or helicopter can transport 50 people at a time to safety.
And because the parts are modular, the pods are customizable. By including different segments equipped with all kinds of survival gear, your personal STATIM pod can be modded to your anticipated needs.
The next step, says Serrano, is creating pods that house critical infrastructure. The company has proposed a variation on STATIM called the Genset, which houses working generators. Having survivable power sources would have prevented the Fukushima meltdown, Serrano says, by providing power to the nuclear plant’s critical systems after the tsunami. Other variations include pods with desalination facilities and a version of the pod that can withstand an EMP blast, ensuring that critical electronics would survive a nuclear strike.
The eerily calm diagrammatic disaster illustration. Not pictured: STATIM occupants bracing before nature’s fury.
While the intention of the STATIM system is that they be temporary shelters, let’s indulge ourselves in a little bit of design fiction for a moment. What about the pod’s potential to facilitate long-term living in environmentally extreme places?
As the seas rise and cities fall, imagine a community of these built and arranged in new flood zones, perhaps for scientists seeking to learn about new littoral urban ecosystems or salvagers prospecting for the remaining treasures of a lost civilization. Every night, the tribe would return to their STATIM homes, sleeping soundly with the confident knowledge that when the next flood happens, everyone will be all right.
As an area becomes picked over, helicopter scouts are dispatched to the horizon to find new fields of discovery. When a suitable destination is discovered, the helicopters return, towing the community to their coordinates. In this way, the group slowly makes their way along America’s flooded coastline, passing by long lost levies and through once thriving port towns. Thanks to an accompanying desalination pod, the group can remain operational away from freshwater for a long, long time.
Back in the present, Brahmin’s disaster-related design pulled in seed funding earlier this year. Serrano says that they anticipate the first demonstration units will be available in early 2014. In the meantime, keep watching the horizon.
An exploded view shows how the modules of a STATIM pod are assembled.
Images courtesy of Brahman Industries.
‘Zombie’ attacks continue? Man naked, bites off chunk of man’s arm
PALMETTO, Fla. – The latest in a string of “zombie” like attacks happened in a Manatee County home Wednesday night after a man under the influence went into a fit of rage and bit a piece of someone’s arm off during a visit with his children.
Much like the Miami face-eating attack, 26-year-old Charles Baker got naked, ate human flesh and wouldn’t go down without a fight, according to a Manatee County Sheriff’s Office report.
Authorities say Baker went to his girlfriend’s home on 25th St in Palmetto to visit his kids at 10:15 p.m. They say he was high on an unknown substance when he knocked on the door, then barged in, began yelling and taking off his clothes.
He was screaming and wouldn’t calm down, then began throwing furniture around the home. Jeffery Blake, who lives in the home, attempted to restrain Baker, but the suspect bit him, taking a chunk of his flesh from his bicep. Blake, 48, was able to get Baker to the ground and kept him there until two deputies arrived.
When law enforcement came inside, Blake released Baker. Baker got up, but would not respond to deputies orders. The suspect instead faced the deputies, tensing his body, clenching his fists and screaming.
Baker, still naked, acted like he was going to rush the deputies, according to the report. Deputy Wildt deployed his an electronic control device after giving a verbal warning.
Baker fell to the ground, and then tried to get back up, so Deputy Wildt deployed the device again. Baker pulled the probes out, so deputy Blake deployed his electric shock device.
Those probes were also pulled out, and Deputy Wildt deployed a second cartridge. By this time, several other deputies had arrived on scene and were able to hold him down and handcuff him.
Baker was taken to Manatee Memorial Hospital for evaluation before being transported to the jail.
Summer solstice, 2012: Six months to doomsday?
WASHINGTON — When the summer solstice arrives Wednesday, it will mark six months until the winter solstice on Dec. 21, when, according to some people’s reading of the Mayan Long Count calendar, the world will be destroyed.
Scientists and archeologists have debunked the doomsday theory, but it remains alive and well in popular culture.
“People who are not specialists in the Maya calendar have taken a few quotes and a few misunderstandings by scholars, and they’ve picked it up and run with it,” says Simon Martin, co-curator of a “Maya 2012: Lords of Time” museum exhibit in Philadelphia. “So it becomes somewhat unrecognizable.”
In 2009, the movie “2012”destroyed the world in the best special-effects fashion. The cable channel Spike TV has announced a new reality show called “Last Family on Earth,” in which one of the prizes is a spot in an underground bunker provided by Vivos, a company that sells space in such shelters. Vivos, for its part, maintains a countdown clock on its Website.
Striking a more positive note, the online stock trading firm Ameritrade suggests, “Say the sun rises on December 22, and you still need to retire. Ameritrade consultants can help you build a plan that suits your life.”
The end of days has been scheduled often during human history. The Bible’s Book of Revelation predicts it. Many Europeans expected the end of the world would come in the year 1000. More recently, American evangelist Harold Camping predicted doomsday would arrive May 21, 2011, then he switched the date to Oct. 21. Now he’s reconsidering.
The source of the current fear apparently is the end of the cycle of the Mayan Long Count calendar, one of the Mayans’ many calendars. The Mayan culture in Middle America thrived for six centuries before collapsing around 900 A.D., according to recent scholarship, because of a series of droughts and possibly warfare. The Mayans were sophisticated calendar makers and time keepers; in Guatemala recently, a Mayan mural with calendar calculations etched on the walls was discovered.
Kate Quinn, director of the University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archeology and Anthropology, or the Penn Museum, where the “Lords of Time” exhibit was displayed, says that the previous end date on the Mayan Long Count calendar occurred 5,125 years ago and was regarded as a significant event.
“They really thought of it as the turning over of dates, as the rebirth, the reawakening — the time to really reflect and start anew and just refresh,” Quinn said. “They really believed in that in the same way that we do with our New Year’s resolutions, but this was a bigger one for them. A much larger time frame. A very big party.”
Martin, co-curator of the exhibit, says that because of different correlations of dates, there is some dispute over when the Mayan Long Count calendar actually will end this time. He said you might want to wait until Dec. 25 to be in the clear.
In September 2011, Archeology Magazine published an article exploring various doomsday theories, from black holes to magnetic fields. Even the National Aeronautics and Space Administration is getting into the act, with its “Ask an Astrobiologist” feature including a question-and-answer column on “Nibiru and Doomsday 2012.” (Nibiru is a planet that the ancient Sumerians forecast would hit and destroy Earth.) E.C. Krupp of the Griffith Observatory in Los Angeles wrote an article for Sky and Telescope magazine going through various theories, “The Great 2012 Doomsday Scare.”
“In various spiritual and religious beliefs we find evidence of the end. It comes back as a kind of classic theme in the culture that we’re imagining it’s about to end,” says author Ben Winters, whose new mystery, “The Last Policeman,” is based on the premise of Earth’s destruction from an asteroid.
The doomsday theories provide “a reason to not be engaged in the world as it is,” he said. “To be thinking about some imagined future, some brutal future. It’s a kind of a fantasy, it’s a kind of escapism.”
Quinn said, however, that when the museum polled visitors to the Maya 2012 exhibit, most people were unaware of the details behind the Mayan Long calendar and the end of days.
“You ask, how do you think the world’s going to end, and they say, ‘Well, it’s something with the sun, aren’t we going to crash into something?’or, ‘It’s going to be a flood,’ and they didn’t really know,” Quinn said. “So there seemed to be a lot of theories out there, and a lot of opportunities out there for us to help the public to be directed to what we know to be true.”
Martin said that doomsday scenarios seem to be a North American phenomenon dating to the 1970s.
“It is something that recurs in societies that are looking for answers beyond what science seems to offer,” Martin said. “I think that people aren’t always happy with what science tells them.”
One positive benefit of the possible end of days, however, could be a boom for tourism in Honduras and other areas where Mayan civilization thrived.
“The hotels are selling out; the restaurants are going to be booked,” Quinn said. “It’s a great opportunity for them to bring in tourists altogether because the people who are interested in this idea of apocalyptic thinking, whether they believe the world going to end or not, they understand that the event is going to be here. They want to be there at that time.”
Locals in those areas seem bemused by it all, Quinn said. While preparing for the exhibit, she said, the descendants of the Mayans asked her, “Why do you Americans think the world’s going to end? And what is it with you people? How can you possibly trace it back to us?”
Miami zombie cannibal similarity? East Naples man bites nurse, threatens to ‘eat faces,’ cops say
NAPLES, Fla. — After being arrested for DUI, an East Naples man was taken to the hospital, where deputies say he bit a nurse and attacked staff, threatening to eat their faces off and rape their wives.
Giovani Martinez, 21, of the 1700 block of 54th Terrace Southwest, was arrested Saturday by Collier deputies at Airport Pulling Road and U.S. 41.
According to an arrest report, deputies observed a small car traveling at 60 mph in a posted 45 mph zone and failed to stop at a red light.
Deputies said they then conducted a traffic stop on the car and discovered the driver, Martinez, to be intoxicated with a spilled beer in the front seat of the car.
At first, Martinez told deputies that the beer belonged to his sister, but he later admitted that he had a few beers that night, which led deputies to conduct a sobriety test on Martinez.
After failing his sobriety test, Martinez was transported to the Naples jail, where he later became unresponsive, according to arrest reports.
Deputies said they then had Martinez taken to NCH Downtown Naples Hospital, where he became violent with the hospital staff.
During the transfer from the ambulance bed to the hospital bed, Martinez began punching and kicking the staff, according to reports.
Martinez then bit one of the nurse’s arms and spit blood in his face as he yelled at them that he would eat their faces, like the guy in Miami, and rape all of their wives, deputies said.
Martinez was referring to an incident over Memorial Day in Miami where 31-year-old Rudy Eugene was found naked and chewing on Ronald Poppo’s face. Police shot and killed Eugene when he failed to respond to orders to stop attacking Poppo.
A hospital staff member told deputies that Martinez kicked him in the stomach and another deputy in the head.
Deputies said it took about 20 minutes before they were able to get Martinez secured.
Martinez faces three counts of felony battery on law enforcement officers and EMTs. He also faces a DUI charge.